Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.072955 1.252503 1.452480 1.691695 1.970084 2.283886 2.664556
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.773904 1.008922 1.300344 1.688188 2.190986 2.821141 3.671740
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.620493 0.874926 1.215381 1.704101 2.388014 3.311937 4.656982
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.496527 0.746323 1.101941 1.644861 2.453360 3.614226 5.411243
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.451138 0.716491 1.114967 1.756470 2.764289 4.289205 6.777790
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.379165 0.632707 1.032124 1.706495 2.818023 4.580721 7.596759
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.320648 0.559795 0.953375 1.647429 2.842618 4.820944 8.355273
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.274836 0.500329 0.886779 1.596267 2.868577 5.059675 9.133625
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.249705 0.472681 0.869520 1.625956 3.034671 5.551859 10.409463
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.239046 0.469408 0.894186 1.732930 3.351282 6.344888 12.326959
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.222392 0.452217 0.890535 1.785529 3.571595 6.985888 14.038593
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.204212 0.429323 0.872688 1.807437 3.733782 7.533550 15.634633
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.183962 0.400010 0.839598 1.796866 3.834771 7.983973 17.117155
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.166216 0.373551 0.809061 1.787973 3.939261 8.457122 18.717321
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.152907 0.354718 0.791792 1.804577 4.099297 9.063825 20.681592
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.134896 0.322721 0.741759 1.741851 4.075896 9.273181 21.794366
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.132216 0.325730 0.769839 1.860006 4.477018 10.466504 25.301090
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.118080 0.299418 0.727309 1.807100 4.471983 10.737578 26.683426
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.105033 0.273911 0.683308 1.744569 4.435153 10.928911 27.897412
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.093985 0.251877 0.644825 1.690405 4.411468 11.147889 29.207644
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.088653 0.243927 0.640277 1.721836 4.608448 11.932089 32.057699
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.087725 0.247595 0.665787 1.835086 5.032837 13.340196 36.720649
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.084030 0.243173 0.669593 1.890769 5.311254 14.406130 40.609947